A first-time buyer asked me on Trulia Voices, “Is this the best time to buy in Moreno Valley?”

Here’s my answer: That depends.

Do you want to catch a falling knife or follow the yellow brick road to real estate wealth? I don’t mean to be flip, but a fair answer to your question depends on many factors.First, the facts.

Moreno Valley has a 14 month supply of homes (2,094 to be exact) for sale. That means that if the current pace of closings continues and no other homes come on the market, it’d take 14 months for every last home to sell.

Many define the bottom of a market when sales exceed listings for three consecutive months. The trend for new listings is increasing, but not to the degree that it is for closings. So I suspect we are nearing the bottom, but we aren’t there yet. The next 30 days will tell us a lot.

In Moreno Valley we are seeing rabid competition for bank-owned homes below $250k. These homes are seeing multiple offers. You can help yourself by working with a Buyer’s Agent who knows how to write an offer that the Bank will accept. Things to consider are escrow length, contingency length, ability to close as communicated by your agent, and some other ways we can tweak the purchase agreement.

Only pursue a short sale if it is THE home for you. 50 of every 100 listings is a short sale, but only 4 of every 100 short sales actually close. Listing Agents like short sales because they can use them to lure Buyers and switch them to other properties.

I suggest you spend some time reviewing the California Residential Purchase Agreement. I give my clients a copy and have them mark it up and ask questions BEFORE we write an offer. There are over 100 different forms that can be used in a real estate transaction in CA and you want to be sure your agent adequately understands the forms and how to use them.

The bottom line is it’s never a bad time to buy real estate. You just have to decide what price and terms are acceptable to you.

My experience is that it’s helpful to ask, “How will I feel if I don’t get THIS house?” The answer to that question usually reveals your negotiating limits.

I am currently personally working with 29 buyers and have many satisfied clients. Let me know and I can put you in touch with any of them so you can hear for yourself how a professional treats his clients.